Iran leadership change by May 31? ↗

Price rose 36.5pp from 15.5% to 52.0% over 63.0h (spike), then reversed. Now at 27.5%, down 24.5pp from peak, 1.0h after the peak.

Semantic Polarity: YES = a concrete leadership change in Iran by May 31 (e.g., death/resignation/removal/succession of top leadership); NO = no such change. Trend is UP, pricing in the YES-World. Momentum check: E=0, D=0, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=0, D=0 (priced-in: E=0, D=0). Self-check: no change. 
Theta direction: DOWN
Price move direction: UP (from 16% to 52%)
Alignment: OPPOSITE
Theta: DOWN — opposed
There is no Logical or Strong Divergence (no verified E/D at all), but the spike rests on zero ★ DIRECT signals about leadership succession (no reports of resignation, death/incapacitation, coup, emergency succession council, or a constitutional trigger), i.e., the news flow is all CONTEXT about the Gulf crisis. With only indirect, process-type headlines and nothing that advances the specific settlement criteria, a 36.5pp repricing is not supported; it already partially mean-reverted. The move was largely unjustified and should continue to revert absent new, DIRECT leadership-change evidence.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.