Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? ↗

Price rose 3.0pp from 31.4% to 34.4% over 1h (steady). Now at 34.4%.

Days to resolution: 49 days. Theta-bleed check: this is a time-decay capture market within 90 days requiring a positive action; with the trend UP, time decay is a headwind to YES absent fresh, concrete capture confirmation. YES-WORLD: Russia is credibly confirmed to have fully captured/controls Kostyantynivka by June 30; NO-WORLD: the city is not fully captured by that date or only partial/temporary advances/encirclement occur. After clustering: 4 distinct ★DIRECT events from 13 total articles — (1) “Russian forces tighten ring around Kostyantynivka” (fresh) = EVIDENCE-tier via NEAR-MISS (encirclement/pressure, not capture), (2) “Initiative shifts to Ukraine” (fresh) = EVIDENCE-tier via NEAR-MISS counter (broad analysis, not city-specific), (3) “Russian advances toward three Donetsk settlements” (fresh) = EVIDENCE-tier via NEAR-MISS (not the target city), (4) ISW “Ukraine’s gains” (stale) = EVIDENCE-tier via NEAR-MISS counter. The ★DIRECT news predominantly supports ASYMMETRIC MIXED leaning YES, since the only city-specific fresh report favors Russian progress, but per capture-market rules these are near-misses, not capture confirmations. Fresh vs stale: trend_fresh=0, trend_stale=0, counter_fresh=0, counter_stale=1; Momentum signals: trend=0, counter=0. With zero ACTION-tier catalysts and coverage plateauing/echoing prior advances, theta headwinds and lack of capture confirmation suggest limited follow-through from this +3pp grind. Remaining space: 65.6pp; Hard rules: Rule 4 (plateauing, no ACTION-tier catalyst) binds → STALL; no clear news-trend conflict (Rule 1) and not balanced mixed (Rule 2).

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.