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US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? ↗
us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by-may-31-2026-333-871-241-192
· US x Iran permanent peace deal by...? · category: 10-point, Agreement, Geopolitics, Iran, Iran Ceasefire, Politics, Trump, U.S. x Iran, ceasefire
· resolves
run_id: 7e341d0d-9f78-4a7f-bba7-a0f0fb0ba3eb
· started
· status
skipped
· planner_skipped
· ✕ planner rejected
no_trade: action=OMIT
signal detected
● executed
detect_reversal
direction
UP
current / peak
20.5% / 17.5%
move_start
29.5%
reversal
+3.0pp
move size / hours
12.0pp / 28.0h
shape
steady
72h range
17.5%—61.5% (Δ44.0pp)
since peak
6.0h
Price fell 12.0pp from 29.5% to 17.5% over 28.0h (steady), then reversed. Now at 20.5%, up 3.0pp from trough, 6.0h after the trough. [Prior context: 24h ago: 25.5%, 72h range: 17.5%-61.5%]
news gathered
● executed
news retrieval (tomographic)
raw→filtered: 340 → 4
quality: HIGH
tokens: 5025
article_thesis
relevant
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian says US-Israeli strikes during talks completely eroded trust in Washington
article_precursor
relevant
Former Indian Envoy Terms Iranian And US Blockage Of Strait Of Hormuz 'Illegal' - South Asian Daily
article_thesis
relevant
Iran's president says previous attacks during negotiations have led to "complete distrust of the United States" - WDEF
gnews_antithesis
direct
Oil prices rise as US-Iran peace talks stall - BBC
AI verdict
● executed
Prompt-MR · misprice analysis
FAIR
conviction: MEDIUM
opportunity: None
action: OMIT
gpt-5 · prompt_2_misprice_v8.5.4 · 12605 tokens
Semantic Polarity: YES = a formal, permanent US–Iran peace agreement signed by 2026-05-31; NO = no such deal. Trend is DOWN, pricing in the NO-World. Momentum check: E=1, D=2, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=0, D=1 (priced-in: E=1, D=1). Self-check: no change. Theta direction: DOWN Price move direction: DOWN (from 30% to 18%) Alignment: SAME Theta: DOWN — aligned No Logical Divergence: the fall matches fresh D (Iran’s president saying prior US/Israeli strikes “completely eroded trust” — a D8-style blocker) and no new E. There are no ★ DIRECT resolution-level events (no agreement signed); older items like talks “stalled” and a canceled talks trip are process setbacks already partly priced at 30% and fail to satisfy settlement criteria. With a near-term deadline and a theta-aligned decline amid only modest fresh D, the 12pp move is justified; no strong mean-reversion edge.
rule audit
● executed
audit_gate
✓
ALL
trade plan
○ skipped
position_planner
✕ no_trade: action=OMIT
the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.