Iran leadership change by December 31? ↗

Price rose 5.5pp from 37.5% to 43.0% over 5h (spike). Now at 43.0%. [Prior context: 24h ago: 38.5%, 72h range: 31.5%-43.0%]

Days to resolution: 251 days. Theta-bleed is negligible over this 2-3 day horizon, as the deadline is well beyond 90 days. Step 1a: There are zero ★DIRECT events—no news directly referencing a concrete leadership change, resignation, death, or formal process toward leadership transition in Iran. The trend is UP (YES more likely), but the news does not align: the context coverage is broad, focused on the ongoing Iran war, economic fallout, and international diplomacy, but none of it constitutes a direct or even process-level signal toward a leadership change. News momentum is plateauing: most articles are commentary, economic impact, or diplomatic noise, with only one speculative mention of Mojtaba Khamenei’s prior injuries (not new, not a concrete development). Signal classification: all events are NOISE or CONTEXT, not actionable momentum or resistance for the market’s resolution. Momentum signals: trend=0, counter=0. Remaining space: 57pp. This is a spike move (>5pp) with no matching catalyst, so per Step 3, Rule 5 (SPIKE EXHAUSTION), and Principle 1 (signal quality over quantity), the move is likely noise-driven and not supported by news. No hard rules bind in favor of continuation; the absence of direct or process signals means the move should stall or reverse.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.