Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? ↗

Price fell 9.0pp from 24.5% to 15.5% over 70.5h (spike), then reversed. Now at 18.0%, up 2.5pp from trough, 36.0h after the trough.

Semantic Polarity: YES = the U.S. conducts a military invasion of Cuba in 2026; NO = no U.S. invasion by 12/31/2026. Trend is DOWN, pricing in the NO-World. Momentum check: E=0, D=3, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=0, D=3 (priced-in: E=0, D=0). Self-check: no change.
Theta direction: DOWN
Price move direction: DOWN (from 24% to 16%)
Alignment: SAME
Theta: DOWN — aligned
No divergence: the drop aligns with multiple de-escalatory signals and time decay. Specifically, multiple outlets reported official denials that the U.S. is contemplating imminent military action (AP-sourced “not looking at imminent action”), Brazil’s Lula said Trump indicated he won’t invade Cuba, and a Cuban diplomat referenced ongoing diplomatic discussions — all of which reduce near-term invasion odds; there were zero escalation precursors (no deployments/ultimatums/evacuations/operational planning leaks: E1–E8 absent), so nothing advanced the settlement criteria toward “invasion.” Given aligned D-momentum plus theta-aligned far-term decay with no opposing E signals, a 9pp repricing is reasonable rather than an overreaction.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.