Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? ↗

Price rose 14.4pp from 57.8% to 72.2% over 37.5h (spike), then reversed. Now at 68.5%, down 3.7pp from peak, 0.5h after the peak.

Semantic Polarity: YES = the next formal US–Iran diplomatic meeting is held in Pakistan; NO = the next such meeting occurs elsewhere. Trend is UP, pricing in the YES-World. Momentum check: E=3, D=3, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=3, D=3 (priced-in: E=0, D=0). Self-check: no change. 
Theta direction: NEUTRAL
Price move direction: UP (from 58% to 72%)
Alignment: N/A
Theta: NEUTRAL — venue market
No Strong Divergence; the move rests on process-only signals (Pakistan source/PM touting mediation; US pausing Hormuz escorts reportedly at Pakistan’s request) offset by counter-signals (Trump saying it’s “too early” for direct talks, Iran FM’s Beijing meetings suggesting alternative venues, and US–Qatar consultations). Critically, there is no ★ DIRECT evidence that a US–Iran meeting is scheduled/confirmed in Pakistan—no date, venue, or joint acknowledgement—so the 14.4pp spike looks like an emotionally amplified read-through from “Pakistan is mediating” rather than venue-specific confirmation. Given venue markets require concrete scheduling/hosting signals, process optimism alone typically warrants a smaller repricing (5–10pp), making most of this move likely to mean-revert.

Kill switches:
- US State Department publicly announces the next US–Iran meeting will be held in Islamabad (date and venue specified).
- Pakistan MFA/PMO releases a joint or dual-confirmed statement with the US/Iran naming Pakistan as the host of the next meeting with a firm date.
- Reuters/AP publishes a named-officials report confirming the next US–Iran diplomatic meeting is in Pakistan, with both sides on record.
- Pool press advisory or travel guidance shows the US Iran envoy scheduled to meet Iranian counterparts in Islamabad within set dates.
- Iran MFA itinerary publicly lists travel to Islamabad for a meeting with US officials, acknowledged by the US side.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.