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US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? ↗
us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by-june-30-2026-837-641-896-877
· US x Iran permanent peace deal by...? · category: 10-point, Agreement, Geopolitics, Iran, Iran Ceasefire, Politics, Trump, U.S. x Iran, ceasefire
· resolves
run_id: 80e8bfbf-09ed-46fe-80cd-e5b8159689a4
· started
· status
skipped
· audit_blocked
· ✕ audit blocked
move_start (43.5%) is near 72h high and was reached by a 11.0pp spike from 24h-ago price (32.5%). This is a bubble top, not a stable equilibrium. Mean-reverting to this level is structurally unsound.
signal detected
● executed
detect_reversal
direction
UP
current / peak
39.5% / 37.5%
move_start
43.5%
reversal
+2.0pp
move size / hours
6.0pp / 0.5h
shape
steady
72h range
30.5%—43.5% (Δ13.0pp)
since peak
0.5h
Price fell 6.0pp from 43.5% to 37.5% over 0.5h (steady), then reversed. Now at 39.5%, up 2.0pp from trough, 0.5h after the trough. [Prior context: 24h ago: 32.5%, 72h range: 30.5%-43.5%]
news gathered
● executed
news retrieval (tomographic)
raw→filtered: 339 → 16
quality: HIGH
tokens: 7270
article_thesis
direct
Iran Delivers New Proposal to US as Hormuz Remains Shut
article_antithesis
direct
World's Largest Aircraft Carrier Leaves Persian Gulf As US-Iran Talks Stall
article_precursor
direct
Iran Ajukan Proposal Baru ke AS, Selat Hormuz Masih Ditutup
article_precursor
direct
Lewat Pakistan, Iran Serahkan Proposal Negosiasi Baru ke AS
article_precursor
direct
Negosiasi Sempat Terhenti, Iran Kirimkan Proposal Damai Terbaru ke AS
article_thesis
relevant
The Price of Peace With Iran
article_thesis
direct
Iran sends new US deal proposal via Pakistan amid stalled talks
article_precursor
direct
Iran Ajukan Proposal Baru ke Pakistan untuk Negosiasi dengan AS, Apa Isinya?
article_thesis
direct
Trump rejects Iran peace proposal, vows to maintain Hormuz blockade
article_precursor
direct
Iran Kirim Proposal Negosiasi ke AS Lewat Pakistan, Peluang Akhiri Konflik Terbuka
article_precursor
direct
Iran Kirim Proposal Baru ke AS via Pakistan, Aktifkan Pertahanan Udara
article_thesis
relevant
Oil prices fall following Iran's response to proposed peace deal
article_thesis
noise
Could key climate talks mark ground zero in global push to ditch fossil fuels?
article_thesis
direct
Iran-US Talks Restarting Soon? Tehran Sends New Proposal To Trump Through Pakistan
article_precursor
direct
Iran sends fresh peace proposal in US negotiations
AI verdict
● executed
Prompt-MR · misprice analysis
FAIR
conviction: MEDIUM
opportunity: None
action: OMIT
gpt-5 · prompt_2_misprice_v8.5.4 · 14349 tokens
Semantic Polarity: YES = a signed, permanent US–Iran peace deal by the deadline; NO = no such agreement. Trend is DOWN, pricing in the NO-World. Momentum check: E=1, D=1, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=1, D=1 (priced-in: E=0, D=2). Self-check: no change. Theta direction: DOWN Price move direction: DOWN (from 44% to 38%) Alignment: SAME Theta: DOWN — aligned No Strong Divergence: opposing E count during the move is 1. The key ★ DIRECT events were (pro-YES) Iran submitting a formal proposal via Pakistan (proposal submitted = resolution-adjacent), and (pro-NO) Trump publicly rejecting that proposal and vowing to maintain the Hormuz blockade (a concrete blocker that fails settlement criteria for a deal). A 6pp dip is consistent with a fresh D8-style rejection plus time decay toward a near-term deadline, so the drop was justified rather than an overreaction.
rule audit
✕ blocked
audit_gate
✕
C_BUBBLE_24H_SPIKE
move_start (43.5%) is near 72h high and was reached by a 11.0pp spike from 24h-ago price (32.5%). This is a bubble top, not a stable equilibrium. Mean-reverting to this level is structurally unsound.