US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? ↗

Price rose 7.8pp from 14.8% to 22.6% over 20.0h (spike), then reversed. Now at 19.1%, down 3.4pp from peak, 0.5h after the peak. [Prior context: 24h ago: 14.2%, 72h range: 3.4%-22.6%]

Semantic Polarity: YES = a signed, permanent US–Iran peace deal by May 15, 2026; NO = no signed deal by then. Trend is UP, pricing in the YES-World. Momentum check: E=5, D=3, L=0 (R=0 unverified). 
Incremental only: E=5, D=3 (priced-in: E=0, D=0).
Self-check: no change.
Theta direction: DOWN
Price move direction: UP (from 15% to 23%)
Alignment: OPPOSITE
Theta: DOWN — opposed
No Logical Divergence: the price rose while net news momentum favored progress toward a deal. Notable process signals supportive of YES (but not fulfilling settlement): Reuters said Iran is reviewing a new US proposal and “closing in,” Pakistan touted a 24–72h breakthrough, Trump paused “Project Freedom,” and he set a one‑week response deadline; counter-signals included Iran denying a near deal and Trump saying it’s “too soon” to prep a signing, plus a tougher UNSC draft. None of these equals “permanent peace deal signed,” but the shift from mere status quo to framework/proposal/ultimatum plus a US operational pause is the ceasefire/deal exception that justifies a 5–15pp repricing. Given multiple fresh, resolution-adjacent process signals, the 7.8pp spike was broadly justified; the minor pullback is normal, not evidence of overreaction.

Kill switches:
- Iran or the US formally reject the current proposal or declare talks “collapsed”
- Trump announces “Project Freedom” has resumed due to lack of progress
- Iran’s Supreme National Security Council or MFA states there will be no deal before May 15
- UNSC passes a resolution authorizing force against Iran over Hormuz, triggering acute escalation
- Reuters/Axios retract the reported framework/proposal or senior officials on-record deny its existence

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.