Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026? ↗

Price fell 6.5pp from 31.0% to 24.5% over 5.0h (steady), then reversed. Now at 26.5%, up 2.0pp from trough, 2.0h after the trough. [Prior context: 24h ago: 7.5%, 72h range: 6.5%-39.5%]

Semantic Polarity: YES = Trump explicitly announces the U.S. blockade of Hormuz is lifted by May 15; NO = no such announcement and/or enforcement continues. Trend is DOWN (31%→24%), pricing in the NO-World. Momentum check: E=7, D=3, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=5, D=2 (priced-in: E=2, D=1). Self-check: no change.
Theta direction: DOWN
Price move direction: DOWN (from 31% to 24%)
Alignment: SAME
Theta: DOWN — aligned
Strong Divergence: Yes — multiple fresh E signals (≥4) opposed a downward move. This is a CESSATION market: fresh E signals included Trump pausing/halting “Project Freedom,” Tehran reviewing a U.S. peace proposal and signalling a deal could be soon, reports that blockades were being lifted, and Iran offering maritime support; the main D counter was CENTCOM shooting an Iranian tanker and “flip‑flop/confusion” headlines (Cessation D-collapse: raw D=3 → collapsed D=2). None of the E items yet meet settlement (no explicit Trump announcement), but momentum moved closer to YES, so a 6.5pp drop looks like an overreaction to mixed headlines rather than justified repricing.

Kill switches:
- Trump or the White House publicly states “the U.S. blockade will not be lifted before May 15.”
- Iran formally rejects the U.S. proposal and suspends talks.
- U.S. Central Command announces resumption/expansion of strikes and full enforcement operations, ending the pause.
- Credible outlets retract “blockades being lifted” reports and the White House denies any planned lifting announcement.
- A major kinetic incident closes Hormuz again and both sides suspend channels.