Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? ↗

Price rose 7.0pp from 26.5% to 33.5% over 12h (steady). Now at 33.5%.

Days to resolution: 250 days. Theta-bleed is negligible over this 2-3 day horizon since the deadline is well beyond 90 days. Step 1a: The ★DIRECT news predominantly supports YES — Bennett has made a public, explicit declaration that he is running for Prime Minister and intends to win, which is a concrete process step toward the resolution. The trend is UP, implying YES is becoming more likely, and this aligns with the news. News momentum is INTENSIFYING: Bennett’s announcement is a new, concrete development, not just commentary or speculation. After clustering, there is 1 distinct ★DIRECT momentum event (Bennett’s candidacy declaration) and 0 counter-signals; the remaining context articles are background or unrelated to the specific resolution criteria. Momentum signals: trend=1, counter=0. Remaining space: 66.5pp. The move is steady and matches the timing of the announcement, suggesting the price rise is information-driven and not exhausted. Step 3 hard rule check: No rules bind against continuation — there is a single, high-quality, concrete action supporting the trend, and no counter-signals. Per the conviction floor, this mandates at least MEDIUM conviction despite thin coverage.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.