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Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Russia before 2027?

will-zelenskyy-and-putin-meet-next-in-russia · Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027? · category: Geopolitics, Politics, Trump, Ukraine, World · resolves
run_id: 836f7852-3853-4830-b102-e211db5eef7f · started · status skipped · planner_skipped · ✕ planner rejected
action_not_tradeable: STALL
signal detected

detect_momentum · UR

● executed
direction
UP
current price
4.0%
anchor → trigger
0.4% → 4.0%
cusum @ trigger
7.26
trigger hours
1h
duration
1h
72h range
0.6%—4.0% (Δ3.4pp)
tick density (6h)
0.67

Price rose 3.6pp from 0.4% to 4.0% over 1h (spike). Now at 4.0%.

news gathered

news retrieval (tomographic)

● executed
raw→filtered: 314 → 15 quality: HIGH tokens: 17123
article_antithesis noise
Armenia hosts European Political Community summit
article_antithesis noise
World leaders arriving in Armenia for 8th EPC summit
AI verdict

Prompt-UR · continuation analysis

● executed
STALL conviction: LOW opportunity: SMALL action: OMIT
gpt-5 · prompt_2_trend_ur_v6.2.0 · 11185 tokens
Days to resolution: 239 days. Theta-bleed check: deadline is >90 days, so time decay is negligible over the next 2–3 days. The ★DIRECT news predominantly supports neither side; there are no direct resolution-touching events, while the trend is UP for YES, so news alignment is MIXED/NOISE rather than supportive. Momentum is starved/plateauing: coverage centers on Armenia’s EPC summit, Moscow security/Victory Day measures, and general war context, with no scheduling, invitations, or confirmations of a Putin–Zelensky meeting in Russia. Signal classification: these are NOISE relative to the criterion; Momentum signals: trend=0, counter=0. With no catalyst behind the spike and the market near the 0% boundary, follow-through is limited; stabilization is more likely than continued climb or sharp reversal. Remaining space: 4pp. Step 3 hard rule check: No clear news-trend conflict and not “balanced mixed,” but Rule 4 language (starved/plateauing, no fresh catalyst) binds to STALL; deep-boundary condition caps conviction.
rule audit

audit_gate

● executed
all
trade plan

position_planner

○ skipped
✕ action_not_tradeable: STALL

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.