Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026? ↗

Price rose 7.0pp from 33.5% to 40.5% over 56.5h (spike), then reversed. Now at 37.3%, down 3.2pp from peak, 2.5h after the peak.

Semantic Polarity: YES = the FOMC’s target upper bound is exactly 3.75% on the December 2026 decision; NO = any other upper bound at that time. Trend is UP, pricing in the YES-World. Momentum check: E=0, D=0, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=0, D=0 (priced-in: E=0, D=0). Self-check: no change.
Theta direction: NEUTRAL
Price move direction: UP (from 34% to 40%)
Alignment: N/A
Theta: NEUTRAL — not applicable
Logical Divergence: Price rose without any ★ DIRECT guidance on the 2026 terminal rate or dot plot; this is a process/context-only repricing. No headlines report FOMC signaling a 2026 year-end target, an SEP/dot change pointing to 3.75%, or any commitment that would pin the terminal rate; pieces about “no cut this meeting,” USD moves, Warsh commentary/confirmation chatter, and upcoming PCE/GDP are indirect and do not satisfy settlement criteria. Given zero E/D signals and a >5pp spike, the move looks flow-driven and has already partially retraced; expect further mean reversion toward pre-move levels.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.