US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? ↗

Price rose 10.0pp from 54.5% to 64.5% over 1h (steady). Now at 64.5%.

Days to resolution: 238 days. Theta-bleed is negligible over the next few days given the long horizon (>90 days), so time decay does not drive moves here. The ★DIRECT news predominantly supports MIXED at best: there are no direct, concrete steps toward a US–Iran nuclear deal; the trend is UP on context about a war-ending “one-page memo” and resumed channels, which per Principle 4c are process signals that do not count toward a “deal signed” market. The narrative is active but largely “sources say” reports, market reactions, and threats/ceasefire rhetoric around ending the war—not a signed nuclear framework or verified filing—so for this market it is noise rather than resolution-class evidence. Momentum signals: trend=0, counter=0. With no concrete nuclear-deal actions, a steady +10pp move away from 50% has limited follow-through; Remaining space: 35.5pp, so there is room, but without direct catalysts this likely stalls rather than extends. Hard-rule check: Rule 4 binds (reasoning contains “sources say”/not confirmed → STALL); Rule 1 not triggered (no clear news–trend conflict), Rule 2 not applicable, Rule 6 (conflict-ending cap) N/A to this market.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.