Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026? ↗

Price rose 6.0pp from 31.5% to 37.5% over 5.0h (steady), then reversed. Now at 35.5%, down 2.0pp from peak, 0.5h after the peak. [Prior context: 24h ago: 32.5%, 72h range: 25.5%-41.5%]

Semantic Polarity: YES = Trump explicitly announces the U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is lifted; NO = no such announcement by May 31. Trend is UP, pricing in the YES-World. Momentum check: E=3, D=1, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=3, D=1 (priced-in: E=2, D=3). Self-check: no change; cessation D-collapse applied (status‑quo threats/rejections collapsed to one incremental D).
Theta direction: DOWN
Price move direction: UP (from 32% to 38%)
Alignment: OPPOSITE
Theta: DOWN — opposed/no deadline
No Logical Divergence: the rise aligns with fresh pro-YES process signals (Cessation Market Exception). ★ DIRECT incremental E signals include (a) Iran’s 30‑day framework proposal aimed at ending the war, (b) Trump saying negotiations are “very positive,” and (c) the U.S. starting to escort a stranded ship through Hormuz/humanitarian “unblocking” — all reopen the pathway to a lifting announcement, though none yet satisfy the strict settlement criterion of Trump announcing the blockade is lifted. Given several medium-impact, resolution-adjacent steps, a 6pp repricing fits the 5–10pp range for renewed pathway/process momentum, so the move was justified and not an overreaction to fade.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.