Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? ↗

Price rose 3.0pp from 32.5% to 35.5% over 1h (steady). Now at 35.5%.

Days to resolution: 240 days. Theta-bleed check: deadline > 90 days, so time decay is negligible over the next few days. The ★DIRECT news predominantly supports NO: a new court filing reveals Musk sought an eleventh-hour settlement and contains threatening texts that OpenAI is moving to spotlight via Brockman’s testimony; there are no rulings or filings favoring Musk’s position. The trend is UP (YES rising), so this is a news–price CONFLICT. After clustering: 1 distinct ★DIRECT event (OpenAI’s filing about Musk’s pretrial settlement text and related push for Brockman’s testimony); the SEC settlement is a different case and not probative for this market, and witness scheduling is procedural. Momentum signals: trend=0, counter=1. With no concrete pro-YES actions and one concrete counter signal, follow-through on the UP move looks weak; a sharp reversal also seems unlikely given the modest +3pp move and lack of multiple adverse rulings. Remaining space: 64.5pp. Step 3 hard rule check: Rule 1 (news–trend conflict) binds → choose STALL/REVERSE; selecting STALL. No other hard rules bind.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.