US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? ↗

Price fell 7.0pp from 61.5% to 54.5% over 1h (steady). Now at 54.5%. [Prior context: 24h ago: 64.5%, 72h range: 54.0%-69.5%]

Days to resolution: 247 days. Theta-bleed is negligible over this 2-3 day horizon, as the deadline is well beyond 90 days. Step 1a: There are zero ★DIRECT events—no concrete actions or filings directly touching the US-Iran nuclear deal criteria. The trend is DOWN (NO less likely), and the news is broadly about diplomatic activity, with a clear theme: talks between the US and Iran have stalled, and Iran is offering proposals focused on the Strait of Hormuz and ending the war, but explicitly postponing nuclear negotiations. This is not a direct step toward a nuclear deal; if anything, it signals a de-prioritization of nuclear talks in favor of other issues. News momentum is plateauing: many articles repeat the same developments (Iran's new proposal, talks stalling, focus shifting away from nuclear issues). Signal classification: the only possible momentum signals are L2 (negotiations "far apart"/"deadlocked") and D8 (actor seeks to postpone nuclear talks), but these are not escalation toward a deal—they are resistance to progress. After clustering, there is one distinct real-world event: Iran's proposal to focus on the Strait of Hormuz and delay nuclear talks, echoed in multiple outlets. Momentum signals: trend=0, counter=2 (stalling talks, postponement of nuclear negotiations). Remaining space: 4.5pp (from 54.5% to 50%). Step 3 hard rule check: Rule 2 (BALANCED MIXED) does not bind, as the news is not mixed but one-sided in stalling progress; Rule 4 (plateauing, echo) applies, requiring STALL. No theta-bleed override, as the market is not near a boundary and the move is not driven by absence of news but by explicit stalling.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.