Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? ↗

Price fell 6.0pp from 70.5% to 64.5% over 1h (steady). Now at 64.5%.

Days to resolution: 250 days. Theta-bleed is negligible over a 2-3 day horizon since the deadline is well beyond 90 days. Step 1a: There are zero ★DIRECT events touching the resolution criteria (a province scheduling a referendum to leave Canada). The trend is DOWN (NO becoming less likely), but the news does not align: the only Canada-relevant CONTEXT events are about Alberta launching a website for a referendum on immigration/constitutional questions, and a pro-Canada question possibly being on the ballot—neither is a secession referendum, nor do they indicate a province is moving toward scheduling such a referendum. The rest of the CONTEXT news is about referendums in other countries or on unrelated local issues. News momentum is STARVED: there is no intensifying or even plateauing coverage of any Canadian province moving toward a secession referendum. Signal count: Momentum signals: trend=0, counter=0. Remaining space: 14.5pp (from 64.5% down to 50%). With no direct or even indirect process signals, the move appears to be driven by noise or misinterpretation of unrelated referendum headlines. Step 3 hard rule check: RULE 2 (BALANCED MIXED) does not apply, as there are no signals on either side. RULE 4 ("starved") applies—absence of news is not evidence for further continuation in a non-theta market. RULE 5 (spike exhaustion) is not triggered, as the move is steady and not a spike. No other hard rules bind.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.