Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time? ↗

Price fell 13.0pp from 28.0% to 15.0% over 84.0h (spike), then reversed. Now at 24.5%, up 9.5pp from trough, 3.5h after the trough.

Semantic Polarity: YES = credible legal process developments pointing to Maduro, if sentenced, receiving zero prison time (e.g., plea/prosecutor recommendation for no incarceration, judge signaling probation), NO = developments pointing toward incarceration (extradition/indictment progress with prosecutors seeking prison, judicial signals of custodial sentence). Trend is DOWN, pricing in the NO-World. Momentum check: E=0, D=0, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=0, D=0 (priced-in: E=0, D=0). Self-check: no change. 
Theta direction: DOWN
Price move direction: DOWN (from 28% to 15%)
Alignment: SAME
Theta: DOWN — aligned
No Logical/Strong Divergence: there are zero ★ DIRECT incremental signals; the drop is theta-aligned and far from the deadline. The listed items (Rivera conviction for Venezuela lobbying; ICJ Essequibo hearings; a Polymarket-betting soldier case) are CONTEXT and do not touch the settlement path (no indictments/extradition steps, pleas, prosecutor/judge guidance for Maduro). Given FAR-TERM timing and no opposing E-signals, the 13pp decline is best viewed as time-decay/positioning rather than news-driven, so the move is FAIR rather than an overreaction.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.