Will Donald Trump visit China on May 14, 2026? ↗

Price fell 6.5pp from 37.0% to 30.5% over 1.0h (steady), then reversed. Now at 33.5%, up 3.0pp from trough, 0.5h after the trough. [Prior context: 24h ago: 23.0%, 72h range: 12.5%-37.0%]

Semantic Polarity: YES = Trump physically visits China on May 14, 2026; NO = he does not visit on that specific date (postponed, canceled, or different date). Trend is DOWN, pricing in NO-World. Momentum check: E=0, D=0, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=0, D=0 (priced-in: E=3, D=0 — trip slated for May 14–15, CEOs set to join, armored vehicles spotted in Beijing — all May 7–8). Self-check: no change.
Theta direction: DOWN
Price move direction: DOWN (from 37% to 30%)
Alignment: SAME
Theta: DOWN — aligned
No Logical Divergence or Strong Divergence (no fresh E opposing the drop). The most resolution-relevant items (reports of a May 14–15 Beijing visit, CEOs accompanying, and logistical sightings) support YES but were already priced in; there were no fresh cancellations/denials during the move. With a near-term, date-specific market and no new DIRECT developments, a 6.5pp drift down is consistent with time-decay rather than an unjustified overreaction, so the move is FAIR.