Iran closes its airspace by May 31? ↗

Price fell 8.7pp from 34.2% to 25.5% over 29.5h (steady), then reversed. Now at 27.5%, up 2.0pp from trough, 4.0h after the trough. [Prior context: 24h ago: 33.5%, 72h range: 17.0%-36.5%]

Semantic Polarity: YES=Iran officially closes its national airspace (e.g., NOTAM/government order) at any time before May 31; NO=it remains open through May 31. This is a CESSATION-type market (closure event). Trend is DOWN, pricing in NO-World. Momentum check: E=0, D=2, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=0, D=2 (priced-in: E=0, D=0). Self-check: no change. 
Theta direction: DOWN
Price move direction: DOWN (from 34% to 26%)
Alignment: SAME
Theta: DOWN — aligned
No ★ DIRECT reports show Iran announcing a closure or issuing aviation NOTAMs; the fresh items are de-escalatory process signals (e.g., “talks moving forward” and “U.S. nears framework for an Iran deal” = D1/D2/D7), which reduce the need for a drastic nationwide airspace closure. With no direct closure steps and a near-term “by date” market, the 8.7pp decline is theta-aligned and supported by modest de-escalation momentum, so the move was justified; any rebound should be limited absent new, direct closure evidence.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.