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China coup attempt before 2027? ↗
china-coup-attempt-before-2027
· China coup attempt before 2027? · category: China, Geopolitics, HFC, Politics, World, xi jinping
· resolves
run_id: 8ff9a699-7f66-4e39-b9e7-5288d9568f96
· started
· status
skipped
· planner_skipped
· ✕ planner rejected
action_not_tradeable: STALL
signal detected
● executed
detect_momentum · UR
direction
DOWN
current price
3.6%
anchor → trigger
6.6% → 3.6%
cusum @ trigger
-4.82
trigger hours
1h
duration
1h
72h range
3.3%—6.7%
(Δ3.4pp)
tick density (6h)
0.67
Price fell 3.0pp from 6.6% to 3.6% over 1h (spike). Now at 3.6%.
news gathered
● executed
news retrieval (tomographic)
raw→filtered: 335 → 22
quality: HIGH
tokens: 18109
article_thesis
noise
La reducción de las emisiones de metano podría liberar enormes volúmenes de gas natural y aliviar la crisis energética
article_thesis
noise
Global governance crisis
article_thesis
noise
Emirates restablece operaciones tras el conflicto: ya opera el 96% de los vuelos - ON ECONOMIA
article_thesis
noise
Energy crisis fueled by Iran war makes economic logic of renewables impossible to ignore
article_thesis
noise
Health Ministry sets up task force to address medicine supply crisis, says Dzulkefly
article_antithesis
relevant
Why Strait of Hormuz crisis could quietly raise prices around the world
article_thesis
noise
Earthquake Exposes Reliability Crisis: The Cost of Eswatini's Taiwan Ties
article_thesis
noise
El 'Efecto Trump' y la crisis arancelaria golpean a dos de las mayores armadoras japonesas en México
article_thesis
noise
Chinese electric vehicle exports rise amid the oil crisis, posing a dilemma for importing countries
article_thesis
noise
FIFA faces 2026 World Cup broadcast crisis: India's Reliance offers just $20M; no deal in China
article_thesis
noise
FIFA World Cup 2026 broadcast crisis: India's Reliance offers USD 20 million, China deal unannounced
article_precursor
relevant
Iran executes three men in relation to January anti-regime protests
article_precursor
relevant
Iran hangs three men over January protests in execution wave
article_precursor
relevant
Iran hangs 3 people over involvement in anti-government protests - AOL
AI verdict
● executed
Prompt-UR · continuation analysis
STALL
conviction: LOW
opportunity: SMALL
action: OMIT
gpt-5 · prompt_2_trend_ur_v6.2.0 · 10521 tokens
Days to resolution: 240 days. Theta-bleed check: YES requires a coup attempt; with >90 days left, time decay is negligible over the next few days, so absence of news does not by itself justify further downside for NO. The ★DIRECT news predominantly supports MIXED (in fact, starved) — there are zero direct China/coup items, while the trend is DOWN (NO becoming less likely), so the move lacks corroborating catalysts. Momentum is STARVED and looks like a liquidity-driven spike with no matching ★DIRECT catalyst, so follow-through is likely limited near the boundary. All 22 items are CONTEXT/noise unrelated to the resolution criteria. Momentum signals: trend=0, counter=0. Remaining space: 3.6pp. Step 3 hard rules: Rule 4 (“starved/plateauing” → STALL) applies; no other binding rules.
rule audit
● executed
audit_gate
✓
all
trade plan
○ skipped
position_planner
✕ action_not_tradeable: STALL
the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.