Iran closes its airspace by May 8? ↗

Price fell 19.0pp from 32.5% to 13.5% over 19.5h (steady), then reversed. Now at 23.0%, up 9.5pp from trough, 1.0h after the trough. [Prior context: 24h ago: 20.5%, 72h range: 11.5%-42.5%]

Semantic Polarity: YES=Iran issues an official NOTAM/announcement closing its airspace by May 8; NO=No such closure or only partial/rhetorical steps without an actual nationwide closure. Trend is DOWN, pricing in the NO-World. 
Momentum check: E=3, D=4, L=0 (R=0 unverified).
Incremental only: E=3, D=4 (priced-in: E=0, D=0).
Self-check: no change.
Theta direction: DOWN
Price move direction: DOWN (from 32% to 14%)
Alignment: SAME
Theta: DOWN — aligned
No ★ DIRECT evidence of an airspace closure (e.g., Iranian Civil Aviation NOTAM, formal nationwide flight suspension) appeared; instead, multiple de-escalatory statements (US SecDef: ceasefire still holds, not seeking war; “Project Freedom” temporary/defensive; Pakistan mediator: “major progress” in talks; Iranian MFA focus on ending war) support lower odds, while limited counter-escalatory notes (US readiness to resume operations; warning of devastating response; reports of IRGC fast boats) are fewer and indirect. With three days to the May 8 deadline, a steady 19pp decline is theta-aligned and backed by de-escalation messaging rather than any concrete step toward closure, so the drop was justified and not a mean-reversion candidate.

Kill switches:
- Iran Civil Aviation Organization issues a nationwide NOTAM closing Iranian airspace effective immediately.
- Iranian authorities announce suspension of all civilian flights over Iran “until further notice.”
- A major confirmed strike inside Iran triggers an official Iranian statement closing airspace for security.
- FAA/EASA order carriers to avoid Iranian airspace followed by Iran formally declaring a closure.
- Iranian military orders civilian aviation groundings nationwide per state media announcement.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.