US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China? ↗

Price fell 6.0pp from 10.5% to 4.5% over 1h (spike). Now at 4.5%. [Prior context: 24h ago: 7.5%, 72h range: 4.5%-15.5%]

Days to resolution: 20 days. This is a time-decay market requiring a positive action; theta-bleed is active and normally drifts toward NO, so a DOWN move in NO needs fresh catalysts to sustain. The ★DIRECT news predominantly supports YES: Iran’s fresh proposal to transfer enriched uranium to a third country is a concrete D7 process step toward a deal, while other direct items (Rubio “expects,” Trump warning) are rhetoric and count 0. After clustering: 1 distinct concrete event from 5 ★DIRECT articles; Fresh vs stale: trend_fresh=1, trend_stale=0, counter_fresh=0, counter_stale=0. Momentum signals: trend=1, counter=0. With a single substantive catalyst but no counter-actions, some follow-through is possible, yet theta opposes further downside and the price sits near the lower bound; Remaining space: 4.5pp. Step 3 checks: Rule 7 (theta-bleed + boundary) binds → prefer STALL with capped move; Rule 5 (spike exhaustion) considered but offset by the fresh concrete proposal; no news-trend conflict and not balanced mixed.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.