Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? ↗

Price rose 2.5pp from 92.5% to 95.0% over 1h (spike). Now at 95.0%.

Days to resolution: 54 days. Theta-bleed check: This is not a “positive action required” market for YES (survival is the baseline), so there’s no inherent time-decay pressure on the price over a 2–3 day horizon. The ★DIRECT news predominantly supports YES: the trend is UP and aligns, but it is ASYMMETRIC MIXED because the clearest concrete action is de-escalatory while one counter signal reflects broader conflict risk. The only ACTION-tier ★DIRECT item is Trump abruptly pausing a new maritime “Project Freedom” initiative (D4-style de-escalation), which directly lowers near-term U.S. operational tempo and supports regime survival; the main counter is Iran’s missile strikes on the UAE (E7), which are escalation but indirect to the resolution criterion, while other items (talks/ceasefire discussions, Rubio statements) are RHETORIC and count 0. Momentum signals: trend=1, counter=1. Remaining space: 5pp. Given a small catalyst-driven spike and deep boundary with limited room, follow-through is likely constrained absent a signed ceasefire or explicit U.S. policy shift, so the price should stabilize near current levels. Step 3 checks: No Rule 1 conflict; Rule 3 ASYMMETRIC MIXED applies but boundary awareness (Principle 6) and equal counter-signal favor STALL; Rule 7 (theta-bleed + boundary) not triggered.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.