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Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? ↗
will-jordan-bardella-win-the-2027-french-presidential-election
· Next French Presidential Election · category: Elections, France, French Election, Global Elections, Main Election, Politics, World
· resolves
run_id: 93809d33-3f49-44c6-8692-0e82f95d5b51
· started
· status
skipped
· planner_skipped
· ✕ planner rejected
action_not_tradeable: STALL
signal detected
● executed
detect_momentum · UR
direction
UP
current price
24.0%
anchor → trigger
20.5% → 24.0%
cusum @ trigger
6.74
trigger hours
1h
duration
1h
72h range
20.5%—24.0%
(Δ3.5pp)
tick density (6h)
0.67
Price rose 3.5pp from 20.5% to 24.0% over 1h (spike). Now at 24.0%.
news gathered
● executed
news retrieval (tomographic)
raw→filtered: 32 → 1
quality: HIGH
tokens: 14470
AI verdict
● executed
Prompt-UR · continuation analysis
STALL
conviction: LOW
opportunity: SMALL
action: OMIT
gpt-4.1 · prompt_2_trend_ur_v6.1.0 · 6666 tokens
Days to resolution: 367 days. Theta-bleed is negligible since the market resolves in over 90 days. Step 1a: There are zero ★DIRECT news events and only one CONTEXT article, which is a generic overview of the 2027 French presidential election with no actionable information about Jordan Bardella's candidacy, polling, or campaign developments. The trend is UP, implying YES is becoming more likely, but the news does not align—there is no evidence supporting the move. News momentum is STARVED: no new actors, no escalation, and no concrete actions. Signal count: Momentum signals: trend=0, counter=0. The move is a 3.5pp spike with no matching catalyst, and coverage is thin (⚠ COVERAGE WARNING). Remaining space: 76pp. Step 3 hard rule check: RULE 5 (SPIKE EXHAUSTION) does not bind since the spike is <5pp, but RULE 4 (phrases like "starved," "no fresh catalyst") applies—action must be STALL. No other rules bind.
rule audit
● executed
audit_gate
✓
all
trade plan
○ skipped
position_planner
✕ action_not_tradeable: STALL
the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.