Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10? ↗

Price fell 3.5pp from 91.0% to 87.5% over 1h (front_loaded). Now at 88.5%.

Days to resolution: 3 days. Theta-bleed check: This is a deadline market where the relevant action (a US–Iran meeting) must be scheduled/held; with no concrete notice of a pre–May 10 meeting, time decay favors YES (meeting after May 10) and is bearish for NO, aligning with the DOWN move. The ★DIRECT news predominantly supports YES: items cite “progress” and third-party engagement but provide no concrete scheduling of a US–Iran meeting before May 10, and one piece notes Trump’s China trip on May 14–15, implying post–May 10 timing; the trend is DOWN in NO, so they ALIGN. Momentum is plateauing: multiple pieces are rhetoric about talks/progress/appeals with no hard scheduling; the front-loaded dip lacks a fresh, concrete catalyst. After clustering: 3 distinct events from 4 total ★DIRECT articles; all are RHETORIC under the strict rule (no formal scheduling/rejection/official filing), so no countable action for either side. Momentum signals: trend=0, counter=0. Continuation vs. reversal: Theta-bleed leans against NO, but with price ≥80% and only rhetoric, boundary effects suggest limited follow-through near term; Remaining space: 87.5pp. Step 3 hard rule check: Use of “plateauing” plus Theta-bleed + boundary (Rule 7 cap) → prefer STALL; no news–trend conflict and not balanced mixed (it’s alignment but low-quality), so STALL applies.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.