Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? ↗

Price rose 11.4pp from 12.1% to 23.5% over 79.5h (spike), then reversed. Now at 18.5%, down 5.0pp from peak, 0.5h after the peak.

Semantic Polarity: YES = Iran formally agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026; NO = no such agreement or explicit rejection by the deadline. This is a CESSATION/deal market. Trend is UP, pricing in the YES-World. Momentum check: E=5, D=0, L=0 (R=0 unverified): Axios-sourced “preliminary agreement/framework soon” optimism; Iran FM Araghchi in China for talks; Trump pausing a US naval mission as a confidence-building de-escalation; Pakistan PM’s public optimism; and a report that Iran is considering sending enriched uranium to the US. Incremental only: E=5, D=0 (priced-in: E=0, D=0). Self-check: no change.
Theta direction: DOWN
Price move direction: UP (from 12% to 24%)
Alignment: OPPOSITE
Theta: DOWN — opposed
No Logical Divergence: verified signals point toward a pathway to a deal and the price rose accordingly; no Strong Divergence. ★ DIRECT-adjacent steps exist (US mission pause = concrete CBM; “Iran considers sending uranium” touches the core object but stops short of “agrees”), so nothing meets settlement criteria yet, but the move from “no clear pathway” to “framework soon + CBM + active talks” justifies a 5–15pp repricing under the Cessation Market Exception. Given multiple fresh process signals and one concrete de-escalatory action, an ~11pp spike is within justified range; the partial pullback looks like normal digestion rather than a mispricing that must revert.

Kill switches:
- US or Iran formally deny the Axios “framework soon” reporting or state talks are not occurring/are frozen
- Iran publicly rejects any plan to export/surrender enriched uranium stockpiles before June 30, 2026
- Major escalation derails talks (e.g., confirmed US–Iran direct clash with casualties; Iran resumes high-level enrichment as leverage)
- US administration/State Dept says there is “no framework and no progress toward a uranium surrender component”
- Talks in Beijing or backchannel round collapses with parties walking out or declaring “no deal possible before June 30”

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.