Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? ↗

Price fell 2.9pp from 33.8% to 30.9% over 1h (front_loaded). Now at 30.9%.

Days to resolution: 52 days. Theta-bleed check: this is a time-decay capture market within 90 days; absence of progress is bearish for YES and should drift NO upward, so today’s DOWN move in NO runs against theta-bleed. The ★DIRECT news predominantly supports MIXED (none); the trend is DOWN, implying NO is becoming less likely (YES more likely), which lacks direct corroboration. Coverage is starved and the move was front-loaded with no fresh catalyst, suggesting limited follow-through. Both context items are NOISE for resolution (no capture confirmation or operational specifics); after clustering: 0 distinct ★DIRECT events from 0 articles. Fresh vs stale: trend_fresh=0, trend_stale=0, counter_fresh=0, counter_stale=1. Momentum signals: trend=0, counter=0. With zero fresh signals and theta-bleed opposing further downside in NO, stabilization or mild reversion is more likely than continuation. Remaining space: 30.9pp. Hard rule check: RULE 4 (starved) points to STALL; RULE 1 not triggered, RULE 7 not binding; no other hard rules bind.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.