Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026? ↗

Price rose 3.7pp from 1.4% to 5.1% over 1h (front_loaded). Now at 5.1%.

Days to resolution: 49 days. Not an election/appointment/conviction market — theta-bleed check applies but with an UP move and 49 days left, time decay does not support the current direction. YES-WORLD: Zelenskyy is no longer President of Ukraine on or before June 30, 2026 (removed, resigns, incapacitated, or otherwise out of office). NO-WORLD: Zelenskyy remains President through June 30, 2026; related scandals, sanctions, or war developments without a formal removal/resignation are NEAR-MISSES and resolve NO. The only ★DIRECT item (Zelenskyy holding an HQ meeting and planning June army reform) is RHETORIC per Principle 4 (“discussions confirmed/underway”), not a near-miss toward removal; it counts 0 and implicitly signals continuity, so there is no concrete pro-YES catalyst. Direction alignment: the trend is UP for YES, while the news is MIXED-to-NO with no actionable ouster process — effectively a CONFLICT with the price move. Momentum looks plateauing/starved for ouster-specific developments; corruption charges against a former chief of staff are context, not a formal process against Zelenskyy. Fresh vs stale: trend_fresh=0, trend_stale=0, counter_fresh=0, counter_stale=0. Momentum signals: trend=0, counter=0. Remaining space: 5.1pp to 0% (nearest boundary). Hard rules: Rule 1 (news-trend conflict) binds → STALL/REVERSE; Rule 4 (plateauing) points to STALL.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.