Iran leadership change by May 31? ↗

Price rose 6.0pp from 6.5% to 12.5% over 2h (spike). Now at 12.5%.

Days to resolution: 26 days. Theta-bleed check: This is a time‑decay market requiring a positive action; absence of direct progress is bearish for YES, but the observed move is UP and not supported by time decay. The ★DIRECT news predominantly supports neither side — there were zero direct, resolution‑touching items; the trend is UP, so the news and price action do not align. Coverage in the window is about Iran–UAE/US military escalation, which is contextual instability but not a concrete leadership-change process (no resignations, incapacitation, succession steps, or official moves), so there is no resolution-relevant catalyst behind the spike. Momentum signals: trend=0, counter=0. Given a >5pp spike without direct evidence in a short‑deadline market, reversion risk is elevated; Remaining space: 87.5pp. Step 3 checks: No NEWS–TREND CONFLICT in favor of NO, but Rule 5 (spike exhaustion without a resolution-class catalyst) points to REVERSE; other rules not binding.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.