Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election? ↗

Price rose 7.0pp from 49.6% to 56.6% over 2h (steady). Now at 56.6%.

Days to resolution: 5 days. Theta-bleed is not a major factor here, as the deadline is within 90 days but the trend is UP and the market requires a positive action (AITC winning most seats), so time decay does not pressure the current direction. Step 1a: The ★DIRECT news consists of two articles from major outlets (BBC, Yahoo News Canada) both reporting that voting has begun in the West Bengal election, which is directly relevant to the market's resolution criteria. The trend is UP, implying YES (AITC wins most seats) is becoming more likely; the news and price direction align. News momentum is INTENSIFYING: the start of voting is a major process milestone, and the coverage is timely and concrete. After clustering, there is 1 distinct ★DIRECT event (the start of voting) from 2 articles. There are no counter-signals; the CONTEXT news is background (candidate wealth, campaign drama, historical results, dry day info, voter roll controversy) but none directly contradict the trend. Momentum signals: trend=1, counter=0. Remaining space: 43.4pp. The move is steady and well-matched to the process milestone, not a spike or echo. Step 3 hard rule check: No rules bind against continuation—there is at least one concrete ★DIRECT event supporting the trend, no meaningful counter-signals, and the move is not exhausted or plateauing. Signal quality is high (process milestone), so conviction must be at least MEDIUM per the conviction floor.