US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? ↗

Price fell 9.0pp from 45.5% to 36.5% over 10.5h (steady), then reversed. Now at 43.5%, up 7.0pp from trough, 10.5h after the trough.

Semantic Polarity: YES = any verified scheduling/holding of a direct US–Iran diplomatic meeting; NO = continued stalemate/rejections/escalation with no meeting scheduled. Trend is DOWN, pricing in the NO-World. Momentum check: E=2, D=2, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=2, D=2 (priced-in: E=0, D=0). Self-check: no change. 
Theta direction: DOWN
Price move direction: DOWN (from 46% to 36%)
Alignment: SAME
Theta: DOWN — aligned
No Strong Divergence: signals were balanced; and there was no direct scheduling/confirmation of a US–Iran meeting. The most meeting-adjacent positives were Iran formally submitting a proposal via Pakistan and active Omani/Turkish mediation (E), but these are process-only; against that, Trump publicly signaled likely rejection and Iran issued hardline/ultimatum rhetoric (D), which are clear blockers. With a near-term deadline, a theta-aligned drop amplified by a fresh D8-style rejection is reasonable; absent any ★ DIRECT scheduling, the 9pp move was largely justified rather than an overreaction.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.