Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? ↗

Price rose 7.0pp from 16.5% to 23.5% over 85.5h (steady), then reversed. Now at 20.5%, down 3.0pp from peak, 12.0h after the peak.

Semantic Polarity: YES = the U.S. conducts an invasion of Cuba in 2026; NO = no invasion occurs. Trend is UP, pricing in the YES-World. Momentum check: E=1, D=0, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=1, D=0 (priced-in: E=0, D=0). Self-check: no change. 
Theta direction: DOWN
Price move direction: UP (from 16% to 24%)
Alignment: OPPOSITE
Theta: DOWN — opposed
No Strong Divergence; the move is supported by a single ★ DIRECT action-tier precursor (surge in U.S. reconnaissance flights near Cuba = E1) and a raft of rhetoric/analysis pieces, while no ★ DIRECT signals show concrete operational steps toward invasion (no ultimatum, no evacuation, no troop deployment orders, no specific strike planning confirmed). A State Department line about preferring a diplomatic solution and outside calls against military action are rhetoric, not action, and do not advance resolution. Given one medium-weight precursor against a theta-opposed 7pp grind, the move is partially unjustified and should mean-revert some (already off ~3pp), with limited additional downside likely as the narrative exhausts absent new, higher-tier E7/E8 signals.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.