US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? ↗

Price rose 6.0pp from 70.0% to 76.0% over 1h (spike). Now at 76.0%. [Prior context: 24h ago: 69.5%, 72h range: 59.5%-81.0%] [EVR: 72h range 21.5pp — extreme volatility regime]

Days to resolution: 6 days. This is a time-decay/process market, but the theta-bleed rule (DOWN + near deadline + positive action required) does not trigger here because the trend is UP. The ★DIRECT news predominantly supports YES: a fresh Anadolu/WSJ report says the US and Iran could resume talks in Islamabad next week, which is directionally favorable but, per Principle 4, is RHETORIC (possibility of talks) rather than an ACTION confirming a scheduled/held meeting. Momentum looks thin: we have one fresh report suggesting imminent talks, while other items are older optimism and commentary already priced in; no fresh counter-signals appear. After clustering: 1 distinct fresh development; Fresh vs stale: trend_fresh=0, trend_stale=1, counter_fresh=0, counter_stale=0. Momentum signals: trend=0, counter=0. Given a +6pp spike on a soft, unconfirmed process signal and no ACTION-tier confirmation of a meeting or a formally scheduled session, follow-through is uncertain; with no fresh counter-signals, a near-term stall around current levels is more likely than a further 5+pp leg up. Remaining space: 24pp. Step 3 checks: Rule 1 (conflict) not triggered; Rule 2 (balanced mixed) not applicable; Rule 5 (spike exhaustion) not binding given a fresh but rhetorical catalyst; other rules not binding.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.