Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? ↗

Price rose 6.3pp from 2.7% to 9.0% over 1h (steady). Now at 9.0%.

Days to resolution: 236 days. Election/leadership market — Theta: NEUTRAL; with >90 days left, time decay is negligible over this horizon. The ★DIRECT news does not provide concrete movement toward Araghchi becoming head of state (the trend is UP for YES), so alignment is MIXED/weak with no actionable signals favoring YES. The narrative is news-starved of succession/appointment indicators; most items are broader Iran–US diplomacy/war context or Araghchi rhetoric, not leadership-process steps. After clustering: 1 distinct ★DIRECT event; it is RHETORIC (talks) and STALE, so it counts 0. Fresh vs stale: trend_fresh=0, trend_stale=0, counter_fresh=0, counter_stale=0. Momentum signals: trend=0, counter=0. With no fresh catalyst and a >5pp steady rise, odds are the move partially retraces rather than follows through; Remaining space: 91pp. Step 3 checks: Rule 1 not triggered (no clear news-trend conflict), Rule 2 not triggered, Rule 3 not used, Rule 4 not triggered, Rule 5 (spike >5pp with no fresh catalyst) biases REVERSE; others not binding.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.