Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? ↗

Price fell 5.0pp from 60.5% to 55.5% over 1h (spike). Now at 55.5%. [Prior context: 24h ago: 59.0%, 72h range: 50.5%-60.5%]

Days to resolution: 27 days. Theta-bleed is active: the market requires a positive action (Paxton must lose the primary), the deadline is within 90 days, and the trend is DOWN (NO becoming less likely). Step 1a: There are zero ★DIRECT events—no news directly referencing Paxton's standing in the Republican primary, his campaign, or any primary polling. All news is CONTEXT, with the closest being a Texas Tribune poll showing a Democrat leading both Cornyn and Paxton in a hypothetical general election, but this does not touch the Republican primary outcome. The other items are unrelated legal actions or general commentary. Thus, the news does not support the trend direction (DOWN), and there is no evidence of a catalyst for the move. News momentum is STARVED—no intensifying or even plateauing coverage relevant to the market's resolution. Momentum signals: trend=0, counter=0. Remaining space: 5.5pp. Step 3 hard rule check: RULE 5 (Spike Exhaustion) applies—this is a 5pp spike with no matching catalyst, suggesting the move is likely to exhaust and partially reverse. No other rules bind.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.