Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? ↗

Price rose 5.6pp from 30.2% to 35.8% over 1h (spike). Now at 35.8%.

Days to resolution: 56 days. Theta-bleed is not a major factor here, as the deadline is >90 days away, so time decay is negligible over this short window. Step 1a: There are zero ★DIRECT news events—no new polling, official endorsements, or process signals directly touching Paloma Valencia’s probability of winning. The trend is UP (YES more likely), but the news is not aligned: all events are CONTEXT, focusing on political violence, campaign rhetoric, and alliance controversies, but none are concrete actions or direct evidence of increased electoral viability for Valencia. News momentum is plateauing: the coverage is broad but consists of commentary, opinion, and reports of threats or political debate, not new developments that would justify a sustained price move. Signal count: Momentum signals: trend=0, counter=0. There is no evidence of a resolution-class catalyst, and the spike appears to be liquidity-driven or based on speculative interpretation of context (e.g., a new endorsement or security threat), not a confirmed process step. Remaining space: 14.2pp (50% - 35.8%). Step 3 hard rule check: RULE 5 (SPIKE EXHAUSTION) applies—a >5pp spike with no direct catalyst and plateauing news flow. No rules support CONTINUE; STALL is required.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.