Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? ↗

Price rose 15.0pp from 28.0% to 43.0% over 57.0h (steady), then reversed. Now at 40.5%, down 2.5pp from peak, 2.0h after the peak.

Semantic Polarity: YES = Bennett secures the next premiership of Israel; NO = someone else becomes PM first or Bennett fails to assemble a path. Trend is UP, pricing in the YES-World. Momentum check: E=0, D=1, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=0, D=0 (priced-in: E=0, D=1). Self-check: no change. 
Theta direction: NEUTRAL
Price move direction: UP (from 28% to 43%)
Alignment: N/A
Theta: NEUTRAL — no hard-rule effect
No Strong Divergence, but there is Logical Divergence: price rose with zero incremental pro-Bennett signals and one recent bearish item (Silman’s recordings alleging Bennett was unfit). Critically, there are no ★ DIRECT indicators of a Bennett pathway (no mandate from the president, no coalition agreements, no party endorsements, no polls showing a clear lead), while the only Bennett-specific headline is negative; the rest are broad political context (opposition tactics, Pollard’s campaign) that don’t advance Bennett toward resolution. A 15pp, 57h grind-up on process/context-only news is likely an overshoot relative to the lack of resolution-adjacent developments, so the move should mean-revert.

Kill switches:
- Israeli president formally tasks Naftali Bennett with forming a government
- A signed coalition/rotation agreement naming Bennett as next PM is announced by multiple parties
- Credible national polls show Bennett as preferred PM with an explicit, named bloc path to 61+ seats
- Major party or faction (e.g., Likud or key coalition partner) publicly endorses Bennett as PM in a no-confidence plan
- Bennett formally launches a new/merged party with prominent allies and immediate polling surge indicating a leading PM trajectory

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.