Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? ↗

Price fell 7.0pp from 34.0% to 27.0% over 4h (steady). Now at 27.0%. [Prior context: 24h ago: 29.0%, 72h range: 27.0%-39.0%]

Days to resolution: 50 days. Theta-bleed check: This is a time-decay market (positive action required by deadline), so absence of concrete progress is bearish for YES and supportive of NO — which works against the observed DOWN move in the NO contract. The ★DIRECT news predominantly supports NO: Trump formally rejected Iran’s response/proposal (ACTION), and WSJ/TASS report Iran refused to dismantle nuclear facilities (ACTION), while “talks may resume” items are RHETORIC and count 0. The trend is DOWN (NO becoming less likely), so news and price are in CONFLICT; momentum looks INTENSIFYING given fresh formal rejections. After clustering: 2 distinct ACTION events from multiple articles. Fresh vs stale: trend_fresh=0, trend_stale=0, counter_fresh=2, counter_stale=0. Momentum signals: trend=0, counter=2. With theta-bleed favoring NO and two fresh ACTION-tier setbacks to a deal, the 7pp drop is more likely to retrace than extend. Remaining space: 27pp. Step 3 hard rules: Rule 1 (news–trend conflict) → must be STALL or REVERSE; Rule 5 (spike >5pp with opposing catalysts) tilts REVERSE; no other binding rules.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.