Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? ↗

Price rose 8.0pp from 63.5% to 71.5% over 13.5h (spike), then reversed. Now at 66.5%, down 5.0pp from peak, 1.5h after the peak.

Semantic Polarity: YES = the Clarity Act is enacted and signed into law in 2026; NO = it is not signed by Dec 31, 2026. Trend is UP, pricing in the YES-World. Momentum check: E=0, D=0, L=2 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=0, D=0 (priced-in: E=0, D=0). Self-check: no change.
Theta direction: DOWN
Price move direction: UP (from 64% to 72%)
Alignment: OPPOSITE
Theta: DOWN — opposed
No Strong Divergence; the incremental signals are process-only: one positive L4 (stablecoin yield compromise text released/“final major hurdle” cleared toward a Banking Committee markup) and one negative L5 (banks expected to oppose), with supportive rhetoric (Lummis promising May markup, White House “pushing” markup) but no scheduled markup or any votes passed (no L1). These items do not satisfy the settlement criterion of being signed into law and represent repetition/escalation of process rather than a concrete step (no formal committee notice, no chamber vote), making an 8pp spike a partial overreaction; the quick 5pp retrace is consistent with narrative exhaustion. Net: the move was not fully justified and should mean-revert modestly.

Kill switches:
- Senate Banking Committee formally notices and completes a bipartisan markup advancing the Clarity Act to the floor
- Senate leadership schedules and passes the Clarity Act (or its package vehicle) on the Senate floor
- House Financial Services Committee schedules and passes a companion bill or identical text with public whip support from House leadership
- White House issues a formal Statement of Administration Policy endorsing the bill and committing to sign, alongside public bipartisan whip counts indicating near-certain passage
- A negotiated bicameral package emerges with public agreement on vehicle and timing for floor action in both chambers within 2026

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.