US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? ↗

Price fell 12.1pp from 28.6% to 16.5% over 32.5h (steady), then reversed. Now at 19.5%, up 3.0pp from trough, 11.5h after the trough. [Prior context: 24h ago: 21.5%, 72h range: 16.5%-36.5%]

Semantic Polarity: YES = any confirmed/scheduled US–Iran diplomatic meeting before May 15, 2026; NO = no such meeting scheduled/occurring by the deadline. Trend is DOWN, pricing in the NO-World. Momentum check: E=2, D=5, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=2, D=5 (priced-in: E=0, D=0). Self-check: no change.
Theta direction: DOWN
Price move direction: DOWN (from 29% to 16%)
Alignment: SAME
Theta: DOWN — aligned
No Logical Divergence: the news momentum (US rejection rhetoric; Iranian preconditions/ultimatums; maritime escalation) aligns with the downward move, and there is no Strong Divergence opposing it (only E=2). ★ DIRECT-adjacent process signals like Iran’s proposal via Pakistan and Omani mediation (talks-about-talks) increase pathway but do not satisfy the settlement requirement of an actual US–Iran meeting; meanwhile, Trump saying he is likely to reject the proposal and Iranian “accept our plan or else” posturing are clear blockers ahead of a near deadline. Given the near-term deadline and theta-aligned, D-heavy flow without any report of a meeting being scheduled, the 12pp drop is justified rather than an overreaction; any rebound likely requires a concrete scheduling announcement.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.