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Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? ↗
will-jordan-bardella-win-the-2027-french-presidential-election
· Next French Presidential Election · category: Elections, France, French Election, Global Elections, Main Election, Politics, World
· resolves
run_id: a35b0b17-1bdb-4690-b643-bfd3f5a9065d
· started
· status
skipped
· planner_skipped
· ✕ planner rejected
action_not_tradeable: STALL
signal detected
● executed
detect_momentum · UR
direction
UP
current price
24.5%
anchor → trigger
21.5% → 24.5%
cusum @ trigger
5.01
trigger hours
1h
duration
1h
72h range
21.5%—24.5%
(Δ3.0pp)
tick density (6h)
0.50
Price rose 3.0pp from 21.5% to 24.5% over 1h (steady). Now at 24.5%.
news gathered
● executed
news retrieval (tomographic)
raw→filtered: 40 → 2
quality: HIGH
tokens: 4651
gnews_indirect_evidence
relevant
Banks won’t lend to us for political reasons, claims party of Le Pen - The Times
AI verdict
● executed
Prompt-UR · continuation analysis
STALL
conviction: LOW
opportunity: SMALL
action: OMIT
gpt-5 · prompt_2_trend_ur_v6.1.0 · 8059 tokens
Days to resolution: 360 days. Theta-bleed not active (deadline >90 days), so time decay is negligible over the next few days. The trend is UP (YES more likely), but there is no ★DIRECT news and the CONTEXT coverage is neutral-to-bearish (financing difficulties for National Rally), so the news direction is in CONFLICT with the move. Momentum looks starved/plateauing with no concrete catalysts or process steps; the steady uptick likely reflects positioning rather than new information. Signal classification: the bank-lending story is RESISTANCE; the gossip piece is NOISE; Momentum signals: trend=0, counter=1. Remaining space: 75.5pp. Hard rules: RULE 1 (NEWS-TREND CONFLICT) and RULE 4 (starved/plateauing language) both point to STALL; thin coverage noted.
rule audit
● executed
audit_gate
✓
all
trade plan
○ skipped
position_planner
✕ action_not_tradeable: STALL
the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.