Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? ↗

Price fell 2.6pp from 27.2% to 24.6% over 1h (steady). Now at 24.6%.

Days to resolution: 45 days. Theta-bleed check: active (deadline <90 days, positive action required), so in the absence of catalysts NO would tend to drift up; however, this window includes campaign-alignment news that can overpower time decay. The trend is DOWN, implying NO is becoming less likely; the clearest high-quality item is the Partido Liberal announcing it will back Paloma Valencia, which directly strengthens her path, while counter-news includes ex–canciller Murillo joining Cepeda and negative coverage of Valencia’s AI “debate.” On quality, this is ASYMMETRIC MIXED — a major party endorsement (organizational machinery) outweighs a single-figure defection and PR ridicule, so the news modestly aligns with the DOWN move. Momentum appears active with new alliances forming: after clustering, I see two distinct concrete alignment events (Liberal Party backs Valencia; Murillo backs Cepeda). Momentum signals: trend=1, counter=1. Remaining space: 24.6pp, leaving room for a further drift lower in NO over 2–3 days despite theta drag. Hard-rule check: no ★DIRECT resolution-class items and no news–trend conflict; ASYMMETRIC MIXED applies (Rule 3), allowing CONTINUE with capped conviction and ≤5pp move.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.