Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? ↗

Price rose 6.8pp from 18.8% to 25.6% over 31.5h (spike), then reversed. Now at 23.3%, down 2.3pp from peak, 1.5h after the peak. [Prior context: 24h ago: 15.5%, 72h range: 15.2%-50.0%]

Semantic Polarity: YES = no qualifying US–Iran diplomatic meeting occurs by Jun 30, 2026; NO = at least one qualifying meeting occurs by then. Trend is UP, pricing in the YES-World. Momentum check: E=4, D=1, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=4, D=1 (priced-in: E=0, D=0). Self-check: no change.
Theta direction: UP
Price move direction: UP (from 19% to 26%)
Alignment: SAME
Theta: UP — aligned
No Logical Divergence: news and price both move toward NO-meeting. ★ DIRECT-ish blockers include Trump rejecting an Iranian proposal and keeping the Hormuz blockade in place, Iran demanding US concessions that “narrow the path to talks,” Iranian/IRGC threats of “unprecedented” response, and reports the US is preparing a “short and powerful” strike wave — all of which reduce odds of a near-term US–Iran diplomatic meeting; mediator activity (Putin proposing a deal) is a single, weaker counter-signal and does not schedule a meeting. With a far-term deadline and a theta-aligned 6–7pp rise supported by multiple fresh blockers (and no direct evidence of a meeting being scheduled/held), the spike is justified rather than an overreaction.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.