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mr
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? ↗
will-the-next-diplomatic-us-iran-meeting-be-in-pakistan-295
· Where will the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting happen? · category: Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, Iran, Iran Ceasefire, Israel x Iran, Khamenei, Nuclear, Politics, Trump, U.S. x Iran, Vance, nuclear deal, rewards 100, 4.5, 100
· resolves
run_id: a38b3d7d-7878-45e1-9aa3-7cb53e6d0f4d
· started
· status
completed
· plan_emitted
[BACKFILLED 2026-05-12] event_dedup self-skip bug retro-fix; position reconstructed via position_planner + walk-forward.
view position ↗
○ closed
· TARGET_HIT
·
+$33.43
AI verdict
● executed
Prompt-MR · misprice analysis
OVERPRICED
conviction: MEDIUM
opportunity: SMALL
action: NO
override: OMIT_STRONG_ASSESSMENT
gpt-5 · prompt_2_misprice_v9.0_theta_v3 · 17996 tokens
Semantic Polarity: YES = the next qualifying US–Iran diplomatic meeting is held in Pakistan; NO = the next such meeting occurs somewhere else first. Trend is UP, pricing in the YES-World. Momentum check: E=1, D=2, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=1, D=2 (priced-in: E=0, D=0). Self-check: no change. Theta direction: NEUTRAL Price move direction: UP (from 62% to 70%) Alignment: N/A Theta: NEUTRAL — venue/neutral Price rose on a single venue-specific report (WSJ and follow-ons) that US–Iran talks could resume in Islamabad next week, but there is no ★ DIRECT confirmation of a scheduled meeting; meanwhile, multiple fresh items show Qatar as the active mediator (Rubio meeting the Qatari PM in Miami) and Iranian messaging about no deadlines/talk delays, which are D signals for “Pakistan next.” With one clear E vs several countervailing Ds and no formal scheduling, an 8pp process-only spike looks partly oversized; expect some mean reversion from the peak even if Pakistan remains a leading venue candidate.