Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? ↗

Price rose 3.9pp from 1.0% to 4.9% over 1h (spike). Now at 4.9%.

Days to resolution: 232 days. Election/leadership market — Theta: NEUTRAL. YES-WORLD: Shabana Mahmood is appointed and serves as UK Prime Minister at some point in 2026. NO-WORLD: She does not become PM in 2026 (someone else holds the office), and leadership turmoil or contenders emerging without her appointment is a near-miss. Classification of ★DIRECT items: “ministers urge Starmer to quit” (EVIDENCE-tier via NEAR-MISS; rhetoric), “three top aides resign” (ACTION against Starmer but still a NEAR-MISS for this market), “Streeting to launch/Speculation grows/Telegraph ‘I’m ready’” (all EVIDENCE-tier via NEAR-MISS; rhetoric), and the Guardian repeat of ministers urging (EVIDENCE via NEAR-MISS); none satisfies “Mahmood appointed PM.” The ★DIRECT news is MIXED for this market: the trend is UP (YES more likely), but most concrete momentum is opponent damage to Starmer rather than Mahmood-specific advances. Fresh vs stale: trend_fresh=2, trend_stale=0, counter_fresh=0, counter_stale=0; Momentum signals: trend=2, counter=0, yet Mahmood-specific catalysts are plateauing/absent while rival names (Streeting, Burnham) dominate coverage. Given a spike without a Mahmood-specific catalyst and ASYMMETRIC MIXED signals, follow-through is likely limited and more prone to stall than extend; Remaining space: 95.1pp; Hard-rule check: Rule 4 (“plateauing”) pushes STALL, Rule 5 not triggered, and no News–Trend conflict.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.