Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election ↗

Price rose 4.0pp from 6.5% to 10.5% over 1h (steady). Now at 10.5%.

Days to resolution: 20 days. Election/leadership market — Theta: NEUTRAL. YES-WORLD: Oh Se-hoon is officially declared the winner of the 2026 Seoul mayoral election on/after June 3; NO-WORLD: any other outcome, including the vote occurring but he is not the winner. For the three ★DIRECT items, two are Oh’s remarks about a narrowing gap and one is a Gallup figure (Jung 46%, Oh 38%); NEAR-MISS detected — all are EVIDENCE-tier-via-NEAR-MISS (related but do not satisfy “wins”), with the remarks being RHETORIC and the poll a credible pre-election indicator. The ★DIRECT news is MIXED ASYMMETRIC: a fresh credible poll still shows Oh trailing (counter), while multiple pieces boost his visibility and frame momentum; the narrative is plateauing after the poll release rather than intensifying. Fresh vs stale: trend_fresh=1 (E9 visibility), trend_stale=0, counter_fresh=1 (D9 credible poll showing trailing), counter_stale=0; Momentum signals: trend=1, counter=1. With equal counts but the higher-quality signal being the poll that shows him behind, the steady +4pp looks fragile, and without a stronger catalyst there’s limited follow-through despite ample headroom (Remaining space: 89.5pp). Hard rules: Election market skip theta; ASYMMETRIC MIXED tilted to counter plus “plateauing” triggers Rule 4 → prefer STALL.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.