Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027? ↗

Price fell 2.5pp from 22.5% to 20.0% over 1h (front_loaded). Now at 20.0%.

Days to resolution: 240 days. Theta-bleed check: Not a time-decay crunch (deadline > 90 days), so theta is negligible over the next few days. The ★DIRECT news predominantly supports NO (hawkish tilt: Barclays pushing cuts to 2027 and multiple Fed officials pushing back on easing), while the trend is DOWN for NO — this is a CONFLICT. News momentum looks active, with new actors and clear guidance (Barclays’ forecast revision, Fed officials’ comments) rather than mere opinion pieces. After clustering the ★DIRECT items: 3 distinct events from 5 articles (Barclays forecast shift; multiple Fed officials rejecting an easing bias; peripheral June-2026 cut-odds piece). Per strict classification these are RHETORIC (no FOMC action), so Momentum signals: trend=0, counter=0. Despite zero action-tier signals, the one-directional hawkish guidance argues the NO selloff is unjustified and prone to retrace. Remaining space: 20pp. Step 3 hard rule check: RULE 1 (NEWS-TREND CONFLICT) binds → must be STALL or REVERSE; given uniformly hawkish ★DIRECT coverage, choose REVERSE; no other hard rules bind.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.