Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? ↗

Price rose 7.0pp from 13.5% to 20.5% over 1h (spike). Now at 20.5%. [Prior context: 24h ago: 13.5%, 72h range: 13.5%-26.0%]

Days to resolution: 232 days. Theta-bleed check: This is a time-bound leadership/ouster market but the deadline is >90 days away, so time decay is negligible over the next few days. YES-WORLD: Merz is “out as Chancellor … before 2027” — i.e., he leaves office (resigns, removed via no-confidence, incapacitated) before Jan 1, 2027, as verified by credible reporting. NO-WORLD: He remains Chancellor through Dec 31, 2026; near-misses like protests, pressure, or bad headlines without a formal ouster keep it NO. There are no ★DIRECT events to classify (no formal processes, votes, resignations, or coalition breaks reported).
The ★DIRECT news predominantly supports MIXED (effectively none); the trend is UP, implying YES is becoming more likely, but there is no alignment since the coverage is contextual commentary only. Momentum is STARVED: one context piece about Merz under pressure and being booed, with no concrete procedural movement toward removal; the 7pp move looks like a liquidity/newsless spike. Fresh vs stale: trend_fresh=0, trend_stale=0, counter_fresh=0, counter_stale=0. Momentum signals: trend=0, counter=0. With no direct momentum and a spike lacking a matching catalyst, partial mean-reversion is more likely than follow-through; Remaining space: 79.5pp. Step 3 hard rules: Rule 5 (spike exhaustion with no fresh catalyst) points to REVERSE; no other binding rules apply.

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.