Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? ↗

Price rose 14.2pp from 28.2% to 42.4% over 32.0h (spike), then reversed. Now at 39.5%, down 3.0pp from peak, 9.0h after the peak.

Semantic Polarity: YES = no qualifying US–Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026; NO = a qualifying meeting occurs by then. Trend is UP, pricing in the YES-World. Momentum check: E=3, D=3, L=0 (R=0 unverified). Incremental only: E=3, D=3 (priced-in: E=0, D=0). Self-check: no change. Theta direction: UP
Price move direction: UP (from 28% to 42%)
Alignment: SAME
Theta: UP — aligned
There is no ★ DIRECT evidence of a meeting being scheduled/held or formally ruled out; the move rode process/context: E signals (fresh US–Iran kinetic exchanges in Hormuz/UAE, Iranian threats including to European bases, and Trump’s bellicose “blown off the face of the earth” line) vs. D signals (a “US–Iran ceasefire holds” update, Iran FM saying there is “no military solution” and openness to talks, and third‑party/UN diplomatic pressure). With a near-term deadline and theta-aligned rise, the 14pp spike is consistent with time-decay plus mixed but non-resolution news, so the move is broadly justified rather than a clean overreaction.

Kill switches:
- State Department or Iranian MFA announces/schedules a bilateral ministerial-level meeting before June 30
- White House or Tehran confirms direct US–Iran talks are underway with a set date/venue
- UN mediator publicly states both sides agreed to meet before June 30 as part of a formal framework
- Ceasefire is upgraded to a written agreement that includes a scheduled US–Iran bilateral meeting
- Joint US–Iran readout confirming a qualifying diplomatic encounter occurred before the deadline

the deterministic planner rejected this trade. typical causes: poor R:R, spread exceeds gap, settlement danger zone, market too close to resolution. LLM assessment is above (Stage 6); planner is a pure-math gate layered on top.